John W. DeFeo

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Duck or Rabbit?

John DeFeo

Today, I'd like to talk about a U.S. president.

History will remember his administration as a polarizing one that threatened journalists1, held children in detention centers2 and invoked obscure laws to prosecute whistleblowers3. Nevertheless, good things also happened.

Below, I'd like to summarize some milestones of this president's administration presented as a matter of fact, not opinion. Each of the following statements is supported by official statistics or data published by third-parties, like The Wall Street Journal and the Cato Institute.

Crime

  • The U.S. homicide rate dropped to the lowest level since 19571; and
  • Line of duty deaths among U.S. law enforcement officers dropped to the lowest level in over 50 years2.

Economy

  • The U.S. stock market reached all-time highs, including record closings for the S&P 5001, Nasdaq2 and Dow Jones Industrial Average3;
  • Median household income reached an all-time high, even after adjusting for inflation4;
  • Real GDP growth (inflation- and seasonally-adjusted) hit the highest level since 20045;
  • U.S. consumer confidence reached the highest levels since 20046;
  • U.S. retail sales hit the highest level ever recorded7;
  • Corporate profits reached the highest level ever recorded8;
  • Investment in private domestic businesses reached an all time high9;
  • U.S. industrial production reached an all time high10;
  • Apple moved production of its Mac Pro from China to Austin, Texas11; and
  • Small business earnings reached the highest levels since before the Great Recession12.

Education

  • National mathematics scores of 4th and 8th grade students reached the highest levels recorded1; and
  • For-profit companies were funded to provide vocational job training2.

Employment

  • U.S. job openings reached the highest level ever recorded1;
  • Private employment reached the highest level ever recorded2;
  • U.S. manufacturing employment grew at the highest rate since 19843;
  • Unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since before the 9/11 attacks4; and
  • African-American5, Hispanic American6 and Asian-American unemployment7 fell to the lowest levels ever recorded; the unemployment rate for women dropped to the lowest level since the 1950s8.

Energy

  • U.S. oil production reached the highest level since 1972 (after two decades of decline)1;
  • U.S. natural gas production reached all-time highs, growing at the fastest rate ever recorded2;
  • A record level of nuclear energy was generated domestically3; and
  • U.S. coal exports reached the highest level ever recorded4.

Family Planning

  • Teenage birth rates fell to the lowest level ever recorded1; and
  • The U.S. abortion rate dropped to its lowest level since 19722.

Farming

  • U.S. farm income reached the highest level ever recorded1;
  • Exports of U.S. agricultural goods reached the highest level ever recorded2; and
  • Agricultural employment grew at the fastest rate since 19943.

Federal Spending

  • The U.S. deficit shrunk in four consecutive years (the first time since 2000)1;
  • Transfer payments toward social benefits grew at the slowest rate since 19512;
  • Medicare spending grew at the slowest rate since 19993; and
  • U.S. contributions to NATO defense spending decreased (as allied contributions increased)4.

Foreign Affairs

  • Overseas deployments of U.S. troops dropped to record lows (i.e. since recordkeeping began in the 1950s)1.

Firearms

  • Total firearms manufactured in the U.S. reached all time highs1; and
  • A record number of firearm applications were processed2.

Healthcare

  • Prescription drug prices had the biggest year-over-year drop ever recorded1; and
  • More generic drugs were approved by the FDA than in any other year2.

Immigration

  • More green cards were extended in a three-year period since the fall of the Soviet Union1; and
  • More deportations of illegal immigrants occurred than under any prior administration2.

Legislation and Executive Actions

  • Permanent tax cuts were signed into law for the majority of Americans1;
  • US-made iron, steel, and manufactured goods became required for federally-funded public works projects2;
  • Funding was provided to fight the U.S. opioid epidemic3;
  • al-Qaeda's leadership was killed in a raid overseen by the president4;
  • Healthcare reforms, first proposed by The Heritage Foundation5, were enacted6;
  • Medical services from the Department of Veterans Affairs were overhauled by the "Veterans' Choice" act7;
  • Paid family leave went into effect for federal workers8;
  • A new child nutrition program, supported unanimously by the U.S. Senate, was funded9;
  • Drone strikes against targets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia were launched in record numbers10;
  • Three trade deals were signed11, followed by a fourth trade agreement (that was bitterly opposed by Congressional Democrats)12; and
  • Videos depicting animal cruelty became illegal13.

To be clear: I'm not writing this article to convince anyone of which party or candidate to support. It's not my goal to trick or embarrass anyone, yet I fear the next thing I write could be taken that way: All of the milestones listed above happened during the eight-year presidency of Barack Obama.

Is it a duck? Is it a rabbit? Sometimes we struggle to look past our first impressions.

References

Introduction

  1. Byers, Dylan. “N.Y. Times Editorial Board: Obama Administration Threatening Press Freedom” Politico, 05/22/2013 08:25 AM EDT, https://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/05/ny-times-editorial-board-obama-administration-threatening-press-freedom-164544. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. “Mother’s Day in Jail: The Obama Administration’s Detention of Women & Children Fleeing Violence” Human Rights First, April 24, 2015, https://www.humanrightsfirst.org/resource/mother-s-day-jail-obama-administration-s-detention-women-children-fleeing-violence. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  3. Goldenberg, Kira. “Obama’s broken promises on transparency” Columbia Journalism Review, October 10, 2013, https://archives.cjr.org/behind_the_news/cjp_report_on_us_press_freedom.php. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Crime

  1. McMaken, Ryan. "Homicides in the US Fall for Second Year as Murder Rate Drops in 38 States" MisesInstitute, 10/07/2019, https://mises.org/wire/homicides-us-fall-second-year-murder-rate-drops-38-states. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. "2013 Line-of-Duty Officer Deaths: An Overview" International Association of Chiefs of Police, https://www.theiacp.org/sites/default/files/all/c/COSW_IACPLineofDutyFactsheet.pdf. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Economy

  1. Vaishampayan, Saumya and Dieterich, Chris. "S&P 500 Closes Above 2000 for First Time" The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 26, 2014 4:30 pm ET, https://www.wsj.com/articles/s-p-500-closes-above-2000-for-first-time-1409055874. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. Browning, E.S. "Nasdaq Climbs to a Record, Again Fueled by Tech" The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2015 7:49 pm ET, https://www.wsj.com/articles/nasdaq-climbs-to-a-record-again-fueled-by-tech-1429832384. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  3. Jarzemsky, Matt. "Dow Hits Highest Close Ever" The Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2013 7:33 pm ET, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324178904578341794219815204. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  4. U.S. Census Bureau, Real Median Household Income in the United States [MEHOINUSA672N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mEbP, February 14, 2020.

  5. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9Fd, February 14, 2020.

  6. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: OECD Indicator for the United States [CSCICP03USM665S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9Fh, February 14, 2020.

  7. U.S. Census Bureau, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q8O3, February 14, 2020.

  8. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) [CP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q8Oa, February 14, 2020.

  9. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net domestic investment: Private: Domestic business [W790RC1Q027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9Fv, February 14, 2020.

  10. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production Index [INDPRO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9FA, February 14, 2020.

  11. Cook, Tim. "We have begun manufacturing the Mac Pro in Austin. It’s the most powerful Mac ever. Orders start tomorrow." Twitter, 10:48 AM · Dec 18, 2013, https://twitter.com/tim_cook/status/413335029264429056. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  12. Dunkelberg, William C. and Wade, Holly. "NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS, January 2020" NFIB Research Center, https://www.nfib.com/assets/SBET-January-2020.pdf. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Education

  1. "The Condition of Education: Mathematics Performance" Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, May 2018, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cnc.asp. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. Mitchell, Josh. "Obama Administration to Fund Nontraditional Training for Students" The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 16, 2016 4:00 pm ET, https://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-to-fund-nontraditional-training-for-students-1471341782. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Employment

  1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9GS, February 14, 2020.

  2. Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q8Mt, February 14, 2020.

  3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Manufacturing [MANEMP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9H4, February 14, 2020.

  4. U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9Ha, February 14, 2020.

  5. "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate - Black or African American (LNS14000006)" U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006. Data extracted on: February 14, 2020 (10:46:35 AM).

  6. "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate - Hispanic or Latino (LNS14000009)" U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009. Data extracted on: February 14, 2020 (10:49:26 AM).

  7. "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate - Asian (LNU04032183)" U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04032183. Data extracted on: February 14, 2020 (10:51:28 AM)

  8. "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate - Women (LNS14000002)" U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000002. Data extracted on: February 14, 2020 (10:53:23 AM)

Energy

  1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production: Mining: Crude oil [IPG211111CN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9HS, February 14, 2020.

  2. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production: Mining: Natural gas [IPN211111GS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9HV, February 14, 2020.

  3. "U.S. Nuclear Electricity Generation Capacity and Generation, 1957-2018" U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/us-nuclear-industry.php. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  4. "U.S. Coal Imports and Exports, 1950-2018" U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/imports-and-exports.php. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Family Planning

  1. Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D.; Joyce A. Martin, M.P.H.; Michelle J.K. Osterman, M.H.S.; Sally C. Curtin, M.A.; and T.J. Mathews, M.S., Division of Vital Statistics. "National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 64, Number 12, Births: Final Data for 2014" National Center for Health Statistics, December 23, 2015, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. Jatlaoui TC, Eckhaus L, Mandel MG, et al. Abortion Surveillance — United States, 2016. MMWR Surveill Summ 2019;68(No. SS-11):1–41. DOI: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/ss/ss6811a1.htm?s_cid=ss6811a1_w.  Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Farming

  1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net farm income, USDA [B1448C1A027NBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q8M8, February 14, 2020.

  2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Exports of agricultural goods [B181RC1Q027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9ID, February 14, 2020.

  3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Level: Agriculture and Related Industries [LNU02034560], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9IF, February 14, 2020.

Federal Spending

  1. U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9fE, February 14, 2020.

  2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal government current transfer payments: Government social benefits: to persons [B087RC1Q027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9IN, February 14, 2020.

  3. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal current transfer receipts: Government social benefits to persons: Medicare [W824RC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9Jc, February 14, 2020.

  4. "Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2011-2018)" NATO Public Diplomacy Division, July 10, 2018, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_07/20180709_180710-pr2018-91-en.pdf. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Foreign Affairs

  1. Bialik, Kristen. "U.S. active-duty military presence overseas is at its smallest in decades" Pew Research Center via data sourced from Defense Manpower Data Center including historical data from the Washington Headquarters Services (WHS), Statistical Information Analysis Division (SIAD), AUGUST 22, 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/22/u-s-active-duty-military-presence-overseas-is-at-its-smallest-in-decades. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Firearms

  1. "Firearms Commerce in the United States: Annual Statistical Update 2019" United States Department of Justice Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/2019-firearms-commerce-report/download. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. "Number of NFA Firearms Processed by Fiscal Year" United States Department of Justice Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/data-statistics. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Healthcare

  1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmacies and Drug Stores: Retailing of Prescription Drugs [PCU4461104461101], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q9JN, February 14, 2020.

  2. "Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) Annual Report for 2015" U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 01/31/2018, https://www.fda.gov/drugs/abbreviated-new-drug-application-anda/office-generic-drugs-ogd-annual-report-2015. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Immigration

  1. "Lawful Permanent Residents 2018 Data Tables" Department of Homeland Security, https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/lawful-permanent-residents. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. Nowrasteh, Alex. "Deportation Rates in Historical Perspective" Cato Institute, September 16, 2019 3:43PM, https://www.cato.org/blog/deportation-rates-historical-perspective. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

Legislation and Executive Actions

  1. "H.R. 8 (112th): American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012" GovTrack, Jan 1, 2013 at 1:39 a.m. ET. On Passage of the Bill in the Senate, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/112-2012/s251. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  2. "Legacy Guidance: The Buy American Provision of the Recovery Act" Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, https://www.energy.gov/eere/funding/legacy-guidance-buy-american-provision-recovery-act. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  3. "S. 524 (114th): Comprehensive Addiction and Recovery Act of 2016" GovTrack, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/s524. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  4. Laura Meckler and Adam Entous in Washington and Zahid Hussain in Islamabad. "U.S. Forces Kill Osama bin Laden" The Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2011 5:17 pm ET, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704569404576298063240517794. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  5. Stuart M. Butler, Ph.D. "Assuring Affordable Health Care for All Americans" The Heritage Foundation, October 1, 1989, https://www.heritage.org/social-security/report/assuring-affordable-health-care-all-americans. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  6. "H.R. 3590 (111th): Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act" GovTrack, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/hr3590/text. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  7. "H.R. 3230 (113th): Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act of 2014" GovTrack, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/hr3230. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  8. Wolfgang, Ben. "Obama paid-leave mandate runs into GOP opposition" The Washington Times, January 15, 2015, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/15/obama-paid-family-leave-mandate-runs-into-republic/. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  9. "S. 3307 (111th): Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010" GovTrack, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/s3307. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  10. Warrell, Helen. "From Desert Storm to Soleimani: how US drone warfare has evolved" The Financial Times, JANUARY 9 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/6346dd78-322d-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  11. The Associated Press. "Obama Signs 3 Trade Deals, Biggest Since NAFTA" Reprinted on Fox News, October 21, 2011, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-signs-3-trade-deals-biggest-since-nafta. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  12. Mauldin, William. "U.S. Reaches Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal With 11 Pacific Nations" The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 5, 2015 5:12 pm ET, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-reaches-trade-deal-with-11-pacific-nations-1444046867. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.

  13. "H.R. 5566 (111th): Animal Crush Video Prohibition Act of 2010" GovTrack, https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/hr5566. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020.